America's elections are getting caught in a fight over the mail

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President Trump's push to restrict mail-in voting through the U.S. Postal Service could allow the federal government to exert control over voting data and state-run elections, voting rights groups say. Why it matters: The proposed rule could scramble the 2026 midterms by forcing local and state officials to adopt an untested federal system on short notice and potentially undermine confidence in U.S. elections. The policy would require USPS to review outgoing mail-ballot envelopes for compliance with federal requirements before accepting them. Election officials would also have to use a new Federal Ballot Mail Portal to submit personal information about voters receiving mail ballots. What they're saying: "It would be, I think, functionally impossible for some places to comply with these rules," Jonathan Diaz, director of voting advocacy and partnerships at the Campaign Legal Center, tells Axios. He said the policy could prevent eligible voters from receiving ballots and prove "catastrophic for election administration and for voters." The other side: White House spokesperson Lauren Bis told Axios in an emailed statement that the "real 'chaos' in our elections is sowed by extreme Democrats who refuse to enact basic commonsense measures that ensure Americans, and Americans only, decide our elections." USPS declined to comment because of "pending litigation." Driving the news: The League of Women Voters of Massachusetts filed a motion Saturday seeking to enforce a federal court order blocking USPS from implementing the rules. That suit is one of several seeking to block the rules from taking effect. One Massachusetts case blocks both the citizenship-list system and mail-ballot rules in 23 states and D.C. The administration has asked the Supreme Court to step in. A third Massachusetts case blocks USPS nationwide from enforcing the mail-ballot rules for Nov. 3. Voting rights groups say USPS violated that order by finalizing the rules anyway. Two D.C. cases have gone more favorably for the administration but don't erase the nationwide block. Threat level: The rule would disproportionately harm Americans who rely on mail ballots, including the elderly, voters with disabilities, rural residents, college students, and people working multiple shifts, Jonathan Diaz says. Voters dealing with sudden illness, travel, or hospitalization could also face delays. Zoom in: Election offices would have to learn to use a new system weeks before voting begins, adding a "burden" to offices that are often understaffed and underfunded, Chris Diaz, director of legislative tracking at the Voting Rights Lab, says. Some jurisdictions could also lose money on pre-printed, non-compliant ballot envelopes. Massachusetts officials, for example, have already spent over $3 million on ballot envelopes that could become unusable. Yes, but: Despite Trump's repeated claims that mail-in voting is unsafe, he has voted by mail multiple times, including earlier this month. States already use safeguards such as signature matching, witness requirements and ID checks to detect fraud, which remains rare. Between the lines: Trump's attacks on mail voting could also further undermine public confidence in elections. "[H]is rhetoric and then actions like this are solutions in search of a problem," Chris Diaz said, adding that the president has no authority over elections. "It's just totally unprecedented for the federal government to be trying to impose a top-down solution... This is just attempting to put a level of federal bureaucracy into a state system that's already working." What we're watching: The Supreme Court could rule for or against the Trump administration at any time. If SCOTUS rules in favor of the administration, the USPS rule would go into effect immediately. If the court rules against the administration, the nationwide block would remain in place for the 2026 midterms. "I think it's really hard to predict how this rule would impact the elections from a 'who's going to win perspective,' but what is absolutely clear is that if this rule were to go into effect right now, it would prevent many, many, many Americans from accessing the ballot," Jonathan Diaz says. Go deeper: Trump's mail-in voting restrictions blocked nationwide by federal judge