A powerful El Niño could disrupt winter getaways. Here's what travelers should know.

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As travelers look to escape the cold for warm weather over the holiday season, an unusually strong El Niño could lead to unseasonal weather in several popular vacation destinations. The climate pattern, which occurs when waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, can shift weather patterns across the country, potentially affecting popular winter getaways from Florida to the Caribbean. "El Niños are associated with more storminess across the southern tier of the country, and potentially more ice storms across the southern plains," Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist at NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, told Yahoo.  Those conditions can significantly disrupt travel, the meteorologist said, but the effects will be far from uniform. El Niño winters are also often warmer, Rosencrans explained, which can sometimes benefit travel across the northern tier of the contiguous U.S. Meanwhile, parts of the Caribbean may see drier weather, creating very different conditions for travelers depending on their destination. Where winter travelers could feel the effects Travelers heading to Florida this winter for a holiday getaway could face wetter-than-usual conditions, with El Niño increasing the likelihood of rainfall and severe weather across parts of the Southeast. "For Florida, it often means a fairly robust secondary severe weather season in November and into December across the Southeast and Florida," Rosencrans told Yahoo. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook , released Oct. 15, gives the Southeast and Florida the greatest likelihood of a wetter-than-normal winter, with odds above 70% in some parts of northern Florida through the January to March period. Temperatures are forecast to be near normal across much of the Southeast. The winter seasonal precipitation outlook, according to NOAA. NOAA That doesn't necessarily mean travelers need to rethink a Florida vacation, but those hoping for uninterrupted beach weather should keep an eye on the forecast. While Florida could see a wetter winter, the Caribbean islands may see less rain, though it varies by island and time of year. "The Caribbean can often see drier weather during El Niño events, more strongly in the summer months from reduced tropical activity," Rosencrans explained. The ABC islands, Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao, are one example of where less rain is likely. Their main rainy season typically runs from October through January, with the dry season arriving later, from February through May. An El Niño suppresses that rainy season, according to the Meteorological Department of Curaçao . While lower rainfall over the islands may sound appealing, Rosencrans said it can mean fewer thunderstorms and make days feel hotter "as there is less cloudiness and continuous sunshine." Other islands show no clear lean either way. NOAA's winter outlook , released Oct. 15, gives Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands "equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation amounts" for December through February. Could El Niño affect hurricane season? El Niño has helped suppress Atlantic hurricane activity this year, but that doesn't mean the threat of tropical storms has disappeared. This year, Isaias became the first Atlantic hurricane of the season late on Oct. 7, making it one day shy of tying a 121-year-old record for the basin's latest-forming hurricane, according to the Associated Press . Lindsey Long, a meteorologist at NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, told Yahoo that wind shear linked to El Niño is still inhibiting storm development across the Atlantic. "In a typical year, we would expect about two additional hurricanes to develop between mid-October and November 30," Long said. By mid-October, the Atlantic would typically have had at least five, according to the National Hurricane Center , as reported by NPR . This year, Isaias is the first. However, the Gulf has been less affected by that wind shear and has extremely warm surface waters that could fuel storms, Long said. Formation typically shifts from the Atlantic's main development region, which stretches from the Caribbean to the African coast, toward the Gulf at this time of year. "There is still a continued possibility for tropical development throughout the remainder of the season," Long told Yahoo. The expert did add that a possible shift in when hurricane season starts or ends would not be connected to El Niño. Travelers heading to hurricane-prone areas may want to consider flexible booking options and review their travel insurance policies to understand what weather-related disruptions are covered. This article originally appeared on Yahoo Travel at https://travel.yahoo.com/advice/article/a-powerful-el-nino-could-disrupt-winter-getaways-heres-what-travelers-should-know-155951095.html